Retailers shed jobs as high street sales continue to fall – CBI
High street sales volumes fell on a year ago in November, for
the sixth consecutive month, with retailers expecting another
decline in December, according to the CBI. Meanwhile, retailers are
reducing their headcount at the fastest rate in two years.
The CBI's latest quarterly Distributive Trades Survey revealed
that 26% of retailers saw the volume of sales rise in the year to
November, while 44% said they fell. The resulting rounded balance
of -19% was weaker than expected (a balance of +4%), and represents
the fastest decline in sales since March 2009 (-44%).
Sales volumes were considered below average for the time of year,
with a balance of -39%, the weakest figure since March 2009 (-42%).
That was slightly weaker than October's balance of -34%. The
decline in sales volumes was driven by pressure on grocers (-21%),
specialist food & drink stores (-51%), department stores (-49%)
and clothing (-27%).
The volume of orders placed with suppliers fell in November
(-25%), at the fastest rate since March 2009 (-47%). Orders
are set to continue falling next month -18%).
Employment across the sector fell at the fastest rate since
November 2009 (-27%) in the year to November. The survey showed
that 13% of retailers increased their headcount, while 40% reduced
numbers, giving a balance of -27%.
Looking ahead to December, retailers expect the pace of decline in
sales to ease somewhat (-6%).
Ian McCafferty, CBI Chief Economic Adviser, said:
"Retailers remain hard-pressed, even as we get closer to
Christmas.
"The relatively mild weather this autumn has hit clothing stores
particularly hard, and retail sales are down year-on-year for the
sixth month in a row.
"Retailers may be hoping that shoppers will loosen their purse
strings in the run up to Christmas, but consumers are likely to
remain cautious about spending given the uncertain economic
outlook."
Price inflation on the high street remained well above average,
with a balance of +56% of firms saying average selling prices rose
in November, and it is expected to stay at similar levels in
December (+54%).
Retailers are scaling back investment plans over the next 12
months (-4%), though to a lesser extent than in August
(-16%).
A net balance of 8% of retailers said they feel more negative
about the business situation over the next three months than they
did three months ago.
Looking at wholesalers, sales volumes growth turned negative in
November (-13%) and they expect sales volumes to decline at the
same rate next month. The three-month moving average, which
smoothes out volatility, was flat (+3%) and is expected to remain
so next month (-1%). Average selling prices rose rapidly on a year
ago (+48%).
In motor trades, the volume of sales declined steeply (-45%)
albeit at a slower pace than October (-55%). Sales volumes are
expected to continue falling at a faster rate next month
(-52%).
28 November, 2011
Note to Editors:
1. Firms responding to the Distributive Trades Survey (DTS) are
responsible for a third of employment in retailing. The survey
includes measures of sales activity across the distributive trades.
It was first introduced in 1983 and the retail results form the UK
component of the EC survey of retail trades. It is an accurate
early indicator of monthly retail sales.
2. The survey was conducted between 27 October and 16 November,
2011. 136 firms took part, of which 80 were retailers, 47 were
wholesalers and 9 motor traders.
3. A balance is the difference between the percentage of retailers
reporting an increase and those reporting a decrease.
4. The CBI is the UK's leading business organisation, speaking for
some 240,000 businesses that together employ around a third of the
private sector workforce. The organisation is also the UK's
official business representative in the European Union, which
generates more than 50 per cent of regulation affecting British
firms. With offices across the UK as well as in Brussels,
Washington, New Delhi and Beijing, the CBI coordinates British
business representation around the world.
Media Contacts:
CBI Press Office on 020 7395 8239 or out of hours pager on 07623
977 854. Follow the CBI on Twitter at twitter.com/cbitweets
