We explore what our business surveys are telling us about the state of the economy.
The CBI’s latest Growth Indicator (a composite of activity across our business surveys) published 1st June found that private sector activity fell in the three months to May, continuing a streak of negative readings for the tenth successive rolling quarter. All three component sectors saw contractions, with manufacturing output, services business volumes and distribution sales all falling. Despite the weak results, activity is expected to mount a modest recovery over the next three months, largely reflecting a revival in the business & professional services sector.
May’s Growth Indicator also saw a continued expansion of the workforce, albeit at rates slower than this time last year – chiming with the data in the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the same month. Echoing the trends in activity, expectations for employment growth vary considerably across sectors: for the first time since February 2021, manufacturers do not expect headcount to grow. Distribution firms likewise anticipate broa
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