In the three months to October 2025, unemployment and redundancies rose, the employment rate fell, and wage growth remained strong, but was noticeably weaker in the private sector. Vacancies also continued to plateau. The labour market picture is therefore fundamentally the same, but the problem of unemployment is growing, with more people who want to work struggling to find a job.
The UK employment rate (for people aged 16 to 64 years) was estimated at 74.9% in the period between August 2025 and October 2025, which is slightly down on the quarter but unchanged on the year. The UK unemployment rate (for people aged 16 and over) was estimated at 5.1% in the three months to October 2025, representing an increase on the quarter and the year.
The inactivity rate for people aged 16 to 64 years old was estimated at 21.0% in the three months to October 2025, which is slightly down on the quarter and to a greater extent the year. The provisional estimate for the number of vacancies in the UK economy in the three months to November 2025 is 729,000, which is broadly unchanged on the quarter (-2,000) and down on the year (-77,000).
Estimates for payrolled employees in the UK fell by 149,000 (-0.5%) between October 2024 and October 2025 and decreased by 22,000 (-0.1%) between September 2025 and October 2025. The early estimate of payrolled employees for November 2025 decreased by 171,000 (-0.6%) on the year, and by 38,000 (-0.1%) on the month, to 30.3 million. The November 2025 estimate should be treated as a provisional estimate and is likely to be revised when more data is received next month.
Annual growth in employees' average regular earnings (excluding bonuses) in Great Britain was 4.6% in the three months to October 2025, and annual growth in total earnings (including bonuses) was 4.7%. Annual growth in real terms (adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH)), for regular pay and total pay stood at 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively, across the same period.
This month's data reinforces insights from recent months. Wage growth in the private sector has continued to plateau, and vacancies have levelled off after a prolonged period of decline. However, there are also some new stories emerging, including redundancy levels ticking up and the employment rate falling. Together, this suggests that rising business costs and poor productivity growth are having a material impact on firms' ability to create and protect jobs.
Unlocking productivity remains the key to raising living standards, creating jobs, and driving sustainable growth. Moreover, it is imperative that government works with businesses to address the risks posed by different policies. This includes ensuring that new guaranteed hour obligations do not result in job losses by poorly reflecting the overtime that firms can afford to offer on a permanent basis. It also means providing businesses with the information that they need to make informed investment decisions. For example, the specific courses eligible for Growth and Skills Levy funding from April 2026.
