The UK's transition to net zero is widely recognised as essential for tackling climate change, but it also presents a significant opportunity to improve public health through cleaner air. As transport electrifies, buildings shift to low-carbon heating and industry decarbonises, many of the same measures that cut greenhouse gas emissions also reduce harmful air pollutants.
This newly published report quantifies the health and economic benefits associated with these improvements in air quality. The findings demonstrate that cleaner air is not simply an additional benefit of the transition to net zero, but a significant outcome in its own right, delivering measurable benefits for health, productivity and the wider economy.
Tracing the pathway from decarbonisation to economic value
For this project, CBI Economics worked with WSP to assess the air quality, health and economic impacts associated with selected decarbonisation pathways aligned with the Climate Change Committee's (CCC) Balanced Pathway. The analysis traced the pathway from emissions reductions, to changes in air pollutant concentrations, to health outcomes across the population and, ultimately, to economic value.
WSP modelled changes in nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) concentrations under four illustrative scenarios, with all including power generation decarbonisation:
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Surface transport: uptake of electric cars, vans and HGVs, alongside modal shift and vehicle efficiency improvements
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Buildings: decarbonisation of heating through electrification, heat pumps and energy efficiency measures
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Industrial combustion: cleaner industrial energy use through electrification, hydrogen and lower-carbon electricity
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Combined pathway: all three sectors together.
CBI Economics then translated these changes in air quality into health outcomes and economic impacts. The primary focus was on how improved health affects workforce productivity, including reductions in sickness absence and gains in economic output. Supplementary analysis also considered other health and wellbeing impacts.
What the analysis found
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The scale of health benefits is substantial: under the combined pathway, the analysis estimates that nearly 264,000 premature deaths are avoided by 2050, with almost 2.8 million life-years gained. Around 497,000 respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions are prevented, easing pressure on the NHS. Health benefits continue to accrue beyond 2050 as reductions in chronic disease burdens are realised over time
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Economic returns begin early and build progressively: productivity gains from a healthier workforce reach £153 million by 2030, £2.4 billion by 2040 and £7.7 billion by 2050. Cleaner air generates an estimated £625 million in additional GVA in 2050 alone. The benefits are not confined to the long term, with gains emerging within today's policy horizon and continuing to grow over time
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The benefits are not spread evenly: the largest gains arise in areas where baseline pollution levels are highest, such as urban areas. The study uses London to illustrate this and finds that the city captures around 17% of UK-wide avoided premature deaths despite accounting for approximately 13% of the population
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The wider and emerging picture matters too: the report also explores a range of wider impacts that remain difficult to quantify. This includes emerging evidence on the health effects of black carbon, which is projected to fall by 37% under the combined pathway, alongside considerations for future sources of emissions such as data centres.
This analysis demonstrates the significant health and economic benefits associated with cleaner air and highlights the importance of considering these co-benefits when assessing net zero policies. By quantifying both the scale and timing of these impacts, the report provides new evidence on the wider benefits associated with decarbonisation.
Methodology and technical annex
The analysis underpinning this report follows a methodology developed by CBI Economics and WSP, combining air quality modelling with health impact assessment and economic valuation. It draws on pollutant concentration modelling for NO₂ and PM₂.₅, established concentration-response functions, population and labour market data, and Green Book-aligned appraisal methods. A full account of the data sources, analytical assumptions and modelling approach is set out in the accompanying Technical Annex.
What this means for other organisations
While this report focuses on the air quality co-benefits of net zero, the approach has wider relevance. Organisations increasingly need to understand and demonstrate the broader impacts of policy, investment and behavioural change, beyond their immediate objectives.
Combining epidemiological evidence, economic modelling techniques and government-aligned valuation methods can help organisations:
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Quantify how policy or investment decisions translate into health, economic and societal outcomes
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Understand when and where impacts are realised and how they align with investment and policy timeframes
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Build a stronger evidence base to support decision-making, business cases and stakeholder engagement.
For organisations working at the intersection of climate, health and economic policy, understanding how interventions translate into real-world outcomes is increasingly important.
About CBI Economics
CBI Economics is the trusted economic consultancy of choice for organisations across many industries, with a proven track record of delivering robust and independent analysis that changes hearts and minds. We are one of several organisations that can help develop the evidence base necessary to support arguments for or against changes in policy. However, what is often missing in other organisations is a deep understanding of the government machinery, the policy landscape and the media environment.
The strength of our knowledge in these areas enables us to be market-leading when it comes to the impact of our work, be that framing the analysis such that it can be most effective in opening productive discussions with government departments or in creating media impact. At CBI Economics, we have the unique expertise which brings these skills together.
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