What comes next? The business analysis of no deal

With the risk of a no deal scenario on 31 October edging nearer and nearer and climbing again to the top of businesses’ priorities, the CBI launched a new report analysing the contingency plans that the UK government, EU and businesses have put in place in order to mitigate the worst impacts and has recommended practical steps that they can take to improve.

Recommendations from the report, ‘What comes next? The business analysis of no deal’, are based on a comprehensive study of existing plans laid out by the UK government, European Commission, member states and firms.

From this analysis, the CBI has come to three conclusions.

1. It’s time to escalate preparations. Having analysed Brexit preparations by the UK government, the European Commission, EU Member States and companies in the 27 areas of the UK’s relationship with the EU that are most important to businesses, the CBI has concluded that no one is ready for no deal.
2. Preparations can have a material impact. Working with its member businesses and Trade Associations, the CBI has compiled over 200 recommendations for reducing the harm of no deal.
3. Many no deal mitigations rely on actions by and negotiations with the EU, which will hold all the political difficulties experienced in talks so far.

While there are actions that will make a difference, even if every one of these recommendations were implemented, the long- and short-term impacts of no deal are still of great concern. Having mapped all 27 of those areas over time, the CBI has concluded that many of the consequences of no deal will be felt for years to come – acting as a self-inflicted drag on the UK’s economy for the next decade and more.

The only way to avoid the negative consequences of no deal on jobs and livelihoods is to strike a deal with the EU.

The CBI urges the UK and EU to capitalise on the new political dynamic presented by the appointment of the new Prime Minister to work toward agreement on a deal that would be a catalyst for future growth and prosperity.
The report is based on thousands of conversations with firms of all sizes and sectors, including no fewer than 50 trade associations, spanning all areas of the UK economy. Overall, it illustrates that even with mitigation, no fewer than 24 of 27 areas of the UK economy would experience disruption.

The CBI is working to support members on how to prepare for no deal and has produced a wide variety of guidance for members, including briefings on:

• 10 questions to answer to prepare for a no deal Brexit - a practical guide to the important topics businesses need to factor into their no deal planning
• Tariffs in a no deal scenario - the government has published details of the UK’s tariff schedules in a no deal scenario - our briefing looks at what might change, and what firms should consider
• EU staff and Brexit - 5 questions for every business: - produced in collaboration with Deloitte, this guide is for UK employers in any sector – from multinationals to SMEs – who want to understand best practice and the role they could play in communicating information and supporting their staff
• A practical guide for businesses to adjust to a no deal Brexit - our guide is designed to help businesses plan for a no deal Brexit by providing answers and signposting guidance against 10 key areas that will impact business in a no deal scenario
• The impact of no-deal on services - conclusive analysis on the damage no-deal could do to UK services
• No-deal FAQs for corporate treasurers - the CBI informs members on financial institutions' potential businesses changes in a no-deal Brexit scenario.
• As well as 10 podcasts on different key issues to prepare for on no deal, from importing, exporting, data and people.

For more information, please contact EUNegotiations@cbi.org.uk