Retail sales fall for twelfth month in a row - CBI Distributive Trades Survey, September 2025

Retail sales volumes continued to decline at a strong pace in the year to September, according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey. Annual sales volumes have now fallen for a full year, highlighting the persistently weak demand conditions facing the sector.

Next month, retailers expect annual sales volumes to decline at a slightly faster rate.

Key findings included:

• Retail sales volumes fell in the year to September at a similarly strong pace to August (weighted balance of -29% from -32% in August), with the decline expected to quicken next month (-36%).
• Sales for the time of year were judged to be “poor” in September, but to a lesser extent than in August (-13% from -19 in August). October’s sales are set to disappoint compared to seasonal norms to a far greater degree (-43%).
• Online retail sales volumes declined at a strong pace in the year to September (-24% from +3% in August) but are expected to fall at a slightly slower rate next month (-19%).
• Wholesale sales volumes declined at a modestly quicker rate in the year to September (-30% from -25% in August) but are expected to fall at a slower pace in October (-22%).
• Total distribution sales volumes (including retail, wholesale, and motor trades) fell in the year to September at a faster rate compared to August (-35% from -28% in August). The rate of decline is expected to ease in October (-28%).

Martin Sartorius, Principal Economist, CBI, said:

“September marked the twelfth straight month of falling retail sales, underlining the tough conditions facing the sector. Weak demand continues to weigh on sales, while US tariffs are adding pressure for some retailers. Lacklustre economic conditions are also affecting the wider distribution sector, with wholesalers and motor traders seeing fast sales declines in September.

“As we approach the Autumn Budget, retailers and other distribution firms will want the Chancellor to deliver certainty and restore confidence to businesses and consumers alike. The employer NICs and National Living Wage increases announced at last year’s Autumn Budget continue to hit the sector hard, with the broader business tax burden now at a 25-year high. The Chancellor must prevent burdening business further by ensuring the Employment Rights Bill avoids unintended consequences that would negatively impact investment and growth.”

In addition, data from the survey showed:

• Retail orders placed upon suppliers declined at a fast rate in the year to September (-36% from -40% in August). Retailers expect to cut back on order volumes at a similar pace next month (-38%).
• Retail stock volumes relative to expected sales remained firm in September (+24% from +23% in August; long-run average +17%) and are expected to hold at this position next month (+24%).
• Motor trade sales volumes contracted at an accelerated rate in the year to September (-67% from -30% in August). Sales are expected to decline at a substantially slower pace next month (-28%).