Find the latest trends in prices for energy, food and metals

Falling prices for commodities such as oil, grains and metals, could mean the cost of doing business in the UK could begin to ease soon – though this reflects both weaker global demand as well as an improving supply situation.

It will still take time for the impact of past commodity price increases to feed through supply chains, and we do not expect any significant easing in consumer price inflation until early 2023. A key risk to the inflation outlook is the prospect of a renewed surge in energy prices, which is a big concern for Europe’s economic outlook as Winter 2022 approaches.

Global commodity prices have diverged in the last couple of months. Non-energy commodity prices have generally fallen back since early June – as rising interest rates, a stronger US dollar and concerns about a slowdown in the global economy have weighed on investor sentiment.

Prices for a range of industrial metals, which spiked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are now back below their pre-war levels.

Food prices have softened too. For example, wheat is down 36% from its February 2022 peak, with initial concerns over disruption to Russia’s food exports diminishing and better-than-expected harvests in other major producers lowering global prices too.

However, global food supply conditions remain tight, thanks in part to high agricultural input costs (especially for fuels and fertilisers, but also labour, transport and packaging). This leaves prices sensitive to poor harvests, with ongoing droughts in several countries still a concern. Food prices are likely to remain a key driver of consumer price inflation in the UK through much of 2023.

Energy markets have been more volatile. Despite the prospect of a global economic slowdown over the year ahead—and less demand for energy—concerns over supply and the risk of further disruption are still dominating markets, suggesting prices are likely