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Living with the variants

We have lived with COVID-19 for two years, and Omicron is unlikely to be the last variant challenging our economy: so how can we move forward with coronavirus and its variants?

16 Dec 2021, 4 min read

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Successful economies are built on confidence. The government’s decision to take swift action in response to the emergence of the Omicron variant was the right one. The move to Plan B, whilst disappointing businesses, represents a pragmatic and sensible step to curb the virus. But whilst the measures introduced are moderate, the message is rather more severe.

The government is right to act when new data comes to light, but we are concerned that this rhetoric is creating a lockdown mentality when in reality the proposed measures are far short of that. The result is a double whammy to firms who see demand fall without commensurate support. We must beware of unintended consequences to the economy. 

The economy should remain open if feasibly safe to do so in the coming weeks. The bar should be high when it comes to introducing any new restrictions on economic activity beyond Plan B. More effort must go into promoting actions alongside the booster campaign that can build confidence and protect public health, like regular lateral flow testing and mask wearing. 

Having spent the last 20 months oscillating back and forth between open and closed, between freedom and restrictions, we need consistency of approach. Omicron is unlikely to be the last variant that challenges both the country and the economy. So, the question is: how do we learn to live confidently, with both the virus and its variants? 

COVID-19 stabilisers:

When there are short-term changes impacting the economy, governments are able to rely on ‘economic stabilisers’ to help balance shifts in the economic cycle and maintain confidence. We now need to channel this approach as we learn to live with the virus and its variants. 

Building on the CBI’s New Settlement document, the CBI has identified six ‘COVID-19 stabilisers’ for living confidently with Omicron, as well as any future variants. These are:

  1. Forward guidance to support business adaptation 
  2. Prioritise mass-testing over mass self-isolation & working from home 
  3. Utilise all ‘COVID-secure’ tools available to build employee and customer confidence 
  4. Maximise our world-leading vaccine and anti-viral programmes 
  5. Proportionate border controls so the UK remains open to the world 
  6. Support to move in lockstep with restrictions.   

Clarity to end confusion:

The immediate challenge for the government is to rebuild confidence. In the build-up to the hugely important Christmas period, this means confidently keeping the economy open whilst also boosting public confidence to participate in it. To help relieve the confusion, the government must make it clear what it is aiming for in terms of economic activity and how it will enable that to happen.  

Consistency to build confidence:

The challenge facing the economy has a longer time horizon than the 5 January review date. No one can predict where the virus may go next. But to stop the oscillation in our economy, we need to find a greater consistency. 


COVID-19 stabiliser one: forward guidance to support business adaptation 

Actions to be taken now: To help give businesses, employees, and customers confidence to live with Omicron, government should:

  • ensure ‘economic impact’ is given prominence alongside public health data in the government’s regular public communications to ensure full transparency of the overall impact of Plan B measures
  • use the 5 January review to outline a roadmap for the return to office, drawing on the success of the booster campaign, testing, COVID-secure workplaces and antiviral treatments
  • confirm if the government has identified further interventions if required, and if so, publish these ahead of 5 January, along with details of the government’s tests for bringing these into effect so businesses can plan effectively for different scenarios.

Actions to be taken going forward: To provide greater consistency for businesses, whenever a new variant is discovered, government should:

  • give firms as much forward guidance as possible ahead of the introduction of new measures and frequently review the timeline of existing restrictions
  • provide consistent messaging across government on the interpretation and implementation of any new guidance.

COVID-19 stabiliser two: prioritise mass-testing over mass self-isolation & working from home 

Actions to be taken now: To help give businesses, employees, and customers confidence to live with Omicron, government should:

  • confirm access to the required stocks of lateral flow tests (LFTs) and address the current supply challenges to deliver on the expected demand surge over the Christmas period
  • immediately update the public messaging to a ‘test when you go out’ focus, to increase the regularity of individual testing, boost confidence and manage the spread of the virus
  • confirm ahead of the 5 January review that pupils and students at nurseries, schools and universities will be allowed to follow the same approach as adults for close contacts of COVID-19 cases, with a system of daily lateral flow tests at home, so that education is not disrupted, and parents can go to work
  • use the 5 January review to announce the continuation of government-funded rapid mass testing for business and the public alike beyond March 2022, including the reintroduction of a government-funded workplace testing scheme. Government should work with industry to support the delivery of sector-appropriate models.

Actions to be taken going forward: To provide greater consistency for businesses, whenever a new variant is discovered, government should:

  • scale-up the availability and processing of PCR testing to successfully track the spread of an emerging variant
  • maintain a ‘test to release’ scheme to prevent mass self-isolation of close contacts of those with confirmed new variants
  • reintroduce a ‘test before you go out’ campaign, underlining the role of personal LFT testing in managing risk and reducing transmission
  • fund rapid mass testing for business and the public alike, including workplace testing schemes.

COVID-19 stabiliser three: utilising all ‘COVID-secure’ tools available to build employee and customer confidence 

Actions to be taken now: To help give businesses, employees, and customers confidence to live with Omicron, government should:

  • provide immediate clarity on whether face coverings are mandatory if deployed alongside other interventions, such as perspex screens
  • have the ICO regularly review and update the data requirements for firms via the new COVID-19 Status Certification (CSC) scheme in response to business feedback. Any initial findings should be made available as part of the 5 January review
  • provide immediate legal guidance on the liability of firms if a customer falsifies a CSC.

Actions to be taken going forward: To provide greater consistency for businesses, whenever a new variant is discovered, government should:

  • reintroduce mandatory face covering requirements in continuous close contact settings, such as public transport and retail settings, providing clear guidance on enforcement and regular communication on review periods
  • review, update and deploy the ‘safer working guidance’ co-created by government, business, and trade unions.

COVID-19 stabiliser four: maximise our world-leading vaccine and antiviral programmes 

Actions to be taken now: To help give businesses, employees, and customers confidence to live with Omicron, government should:

  • provide full details of the efficacy of the booster vaccine against the Omicron variant as soon as the data is available, and ahead of the 5 January review
  • work with businesses to support volunteering to help with the booster delivery programme.
  • encourage firms to be as flexible as possible in supporting employees to get their vaccine/booster vaccine during working hours
  • deploy MHRA-approved antiviral treatments at pace, making them widely available.

Actions to be taken going forward: To provide greater consistency for businesses, whenever a new variant is discovered, government should:

  • deliver a communications campaign on the safety and efficacy of the vaccine and need for booster vaccines, to tackle waning immunity and new variants
  • provide sufficient funding for winter flu and COVID-19 boosters in 2022 and 2023, to help keep people safe and the economy moving
  • use treatments such as antivirals at scale as soon as they are authorised by the MHRA.

COVID-19 stabiliser five: proportionate border controls so the UK remains open to the world

Actions to be taken now: To help give businesses, employees, and customers confidence to live with Omicron, government should:

  • immediately review the current pre-departure testing requirements for travellers returning to the UK with the further ambition of lifting further testing requirements as soon as lower infection rates allow, and based on evidence
  • provide immediate clarification on pre-departure testing requirements for those who are fully vaccinated but have tested positive 90 days prior to departure
  • address the need for affordable PCR testing, if testing requirements remain, to help protect demand for international travel.

Actions to be taken going forward: To provide greater consistency for businesses, whenever a new variant is discovered, government should:

  • provide transparency around how decisions on any international travel restrictions are made and the conditions/metrics that would prompt a change in response
  • introduce clear, regular review periods for any international travel restrictions with a view to a return to restriction-free travel
  • utilise lateral flow testing (LFTs) for non-vaccinated passengers with ‘on arrival’ PCR testing only used as a tool for tracking the emergence of new variants during the early days of their identification.

COVID-19 stabiliser six: support to move in lockstep with restrictions 

Actions to be taken now: To help give businesses, employees, and customers confidence to live with Omicron, government should:

  • work now to ensure unspent Local Authority grants are quickly distributed to firms, including the Additional Restrictions Grant and the Business Rates relief fund and consider re-opening closed grants where funding remains
  • confirm that support will be provided to ensure sufficient community testing and the booster roll out continues at pace, alongside anti-viral development and distribution
  • create a formal engagement forum for business, government and unions to give feedback on the current situation, in particular to ensure firms continue to have adequate cash flow.

Actions to be considered now: If restrictions continue or new interventions are introduced as part of the 5 January review, announce measures to support businesses with suppressed demand and where support for cash flow is required, including the smoothing of March cliff-edges in current support. For example (but not limited to):

  • review forbearance mechanisms for coronavirus loan schemes, including repayment holidays, interest-free periods and repayment periods - creating more breathing space for large firms
    • Pay As You Grow has been effective for bounce back loans, so it is essential for HMT to push awareness to ensure businesses are clear on the options available, and flag debt restructuring as a course of action for larger firms, as well as the Recovery Loan Scheme
  • extend measures to reduce the fixed costs of businesses, particularly in sectors such as aviation (including the Airport and Ground Operations Support Scheme – AGOSS), hospitality and leisure and their supply chains, and increasing the cap on Business Rates relief
  • commit to reinstating direct grants disbursed via the business rates system for any business which is mandated to close by the government • consider a Q1 VAT payment deferral option, for those firms who have experienced a dramatic negative impact on their revenues or bookings
  • delay the planned return to the full rate of VAT for hospitality, holiday accommodation and attractions firms and consider including their supply chains and leisure businesses within scope
  • consider a Q1 VAT payment deferral option, for those firms who have experienced a dramatic negative impact on their revenues or bookings.

Actions to be taken going forward: To provide greater consistency for businesses, whenever a new variant is discovered, government should:

  • give firms confidence by confirming a principle of support for affected industries being delivered in lockstep with restrictions
  • maintain Statutory Sick Pay and the NHS Test and Trace COVID-19 Support Payment for individuals who are self-isolating.


We must always be guided by the medical experts, and we need to learn to live with the virus and its variants. The objective is consistency – of message, approach, and support. These ‘COVID-19 stabilisers’ are what should guide us going forward in the face of new variants, new waves, the risk of waning immunity of vaccines, and a possible winter flu escalation.