Two of the biggest forces reshaping the UK labour market are happening at the same time: the transition to net zero and the rapid adoption of AI. Both will change the jobs people do and the skills employers need.
But how do the two transitions interact? Are the jobs needed to deliver the green transition particularly exposed to AI, or could they be relatively well placed in an AI-enabled economy? These are the questions explored in the new CBI Economics report, Green Advantage: Employment in an AI-Enabled Economy, commissioned by Futerra Solutions Union and the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit.
AI exposure doesn’t necessarily mean job displacement
Much of the existing evidence on AI and jobs focuses on exposure, meaning how far AI capabilities overlap with the abilities an occupation requires. But exposure alone does not tell us whether AI is likely to substitute for a worker or help them do their job differently.
To explore this distinction, CBI Economics applied a framework developed by economists at the International Monetary Fund updated to reflect the latest UK employment data and occupational classification. The framework considers both what AI can currently do and the characteristics of different occupations that make AI more likely to complement human workers. These include responsibility and accountability, the consequences of error, face-to-face interaction and working in physical and often unpredictable settings.
This allows the analysis to look beyond whether a job is simply “exposed” to AI and ask a more useful question: Where is AI more likely to support human work, and where is there greater potential for substitution?
Importantly, this is an assessment based on current AI capabilities and the characteristics of today's jobs, not a forecast of future job losses.
Green jobs appear relatively well placed
The results point to a consistent pattern. Across the UK workforce, around three in four jobs are in occupations with lower potential for AI substitution. Every measure of green employment we looked at performs better than this wider workforce benchmark.
The pattern is particularly striking when looking at the jobs young people are entering and those the UK will increasingly need in future. Among 16- to 24-year-olds participating in green apprenticeships in England, around 96% of participation is in occupations with lower potential for AI substitution. Green apprenticeships already account for around a third of apprenticeship participation among this age group.
Looking ahead, the picture is similar. Around 94% of the additional workers needed in the priority occupations identified in the government's Clean Energy Jobs Plan are expected to be in occupations with lower potential for AI substitution.
These findings suggest that many of the jobs needed to deliver the UK's green transition could also be relatively well placed as AI becomes more widely adopted across the economy.
The bigger challenge may be getting enough people into these jobs
This changes how we should think about the relationship between the AI and net zero transitions. None of our findings suggest green jobs are untouched by AI, but it does suggest the AI and net zero transitions needn’t pull against each other. Much of the work the transition depends on is practical and site-based, in occupations where AI overlaps with relatively little of what the job involves. At the same time, demand for these workers is set to grow quickly.
That shifts the focus to the workforce pipeline. The more pressing question is not whether AI will affect these jobs, but whether there will be enough people with the right training to fill them.
The findings also raise a different question, whether enough people will have the right training to fill these roles. The answer matters for those shaping policy, planning their workforce or deciding their next career move:
- Policymakers : the challenge is not simply preparing workers for jobs that may be affected by AI. It is also ensuring that enough people can access the technical training, apprenticeships and career pathways needed to fill growing areas of demand
- Employers : the consideration of AI adoption and workforce planning need to be planned together, by identifying where technology can augment employees while continuing to invest in the technical, interpersonal and judgement-based skills that remain essential
- People making choices about their careers: the findings provide an encouraging indication that many of the occupations needed for the green transition combine growing demand with skills and activities that remain distinctly human.
The two transitions will continue to evolve, and today’s assessment cannot tell us exactly what the labour market will look like in ten years’ time. But the analysis suggests they do not need to pull the workforce in opposite directions. Done well, an AI-enabled economy and a greener economy could reinforce one another.
A full account of the data sources, classification framework and analytical assumptions is set out in the accompanying Technical Annex.
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