Retail conditions deteriorate further in September 2026 - CBI Distributive Trades Survey

Retail sales volumes fell more rapidly in the year to September, while online retail sales declined at the fastest pace in nearly three years. Additionally, retailers reported cutting back on order volumes at the quickest rate on survey record (since 1983).

Next month, retailers expect annual sales volumes to decline at a strong, albeit slower, pace. Online sales and order volumes are anticipated to continue falling rapidly.   

Key findings included:

• Retail sales volumes fell at a steeper rate in the year to September (weighted balance of -55% from -48% in August). Sales are expected to decline at a slower, albeit still fast, pace next month (-37%).
• Retail sales for the time of year were judged to be “poor” in September (-40%), to a greater extent than last month (-26%). October’s sales are set to fall short of seasonal norms to a similar degree (-39%).
• Online retail sales volumes dropped in the year to September (-68% from -43% in August) at the fastest rate since October 2023. Online sales volumes are expected to fall at the same pace next month (-68%).
• Retail orders placed upon suppliers fell in the year to September (-62% from -29% in August) at the quickest pace on survey record (since 1983). The rate of decline is set to remain similarly rapid in October (-63%).
• Total distribution sales volumes (across retail, wholesale, and motor trades) fell at a faster rate in the year to September (-36% from -27% in August). Sales are expected to contract at a slightly slower pace next month (-29%).

Martin Sartorius, Lead Economist, CBI, said:

“Retailers reported a steep fall in annual sales volumes in September, with some firms attributing the deterioration to poor consumer sentiment. The persistent sales downturn appears to have prompted retailers to cut back on order volumes at a survey-record pace. This weakness was echoed across the distribution sector, with wholesalers and motor traders also seeing faster falls in sales.

“With the Autumn Budget fast approaching, the Government should cut Employer NICs and deliver meaningful business rates reform to lower the cost of doing business and enable retailers and other distribution firms to invest, hire and grow.”

In addition, data from the survey showed:

• Retail stock volumes in relation to expected sales remained below the long-run average in September (+10% from +9% in August; long-run average of +17%). Stock positions are set to stay broadly unchanged next month (+9%).
• Wholesale sales volumes declined at a quicker rate in the year to September (-24% from -13% in August). Sales are set to fall at a similar pace in October (-23%).
• Motor trade sales volumes contracted at a strong pace in the year to September (-31% from -26% in August). Motor traders expect sales to decline at a broadly unchanged rate next month (-34%).