Retail sales decline at slowest pace in 18 months - CBI Distributive Trades Survey

Retail sales volumes fell in the year to October at the slowest rate since April 2025, according to the CBI's latest Distributive Trades Survey.

Separately, October’s sales were judged to be broadly in line with seasonal norms for the first time in over two years, while the decline in order volumes eased somewhat from September’s record year-on-year pace.

Retailers anticipate that annual sales volumes will contract at the same modest rate next month. However, November’s sales are expected to disappoint against seasonal norms.

Key findings included:

• Retail sales volumes contracted in the year to October at the slowest rate since April 2025 (weighted balance of -10% from -55% in September). Sales are expected to decline at the same pace next month (-10%).
• Retail sales for the time of year were judged to be broadly “average” in October (-3% from -40% in September), for the first time since May 2024. November’s sales are set to fall short of seasonal norms (-24%).
• Online retail sales volumes contracted at a slower, albeit still strong, rate in the year to October (-39% from -68% in September). Sales are expected to fall at a similar pace next month (-41%).
• Retail orders placed upon suppliers fell quickly in the year to October, though at a slower pace than September’s record-fast drop (-36% from -62% in September). The rate of decline is set to ease further in November (-29%).
• Total distribution sales volumes (across retail, wholesale, and motor trades) fell at a substantially slower rate in the year to October (-6% from -36% in September). Sales are expected to contract at a marginally quicker pace next month (-11%).

Martin Sartorius, Lead Economist, CBI, said:

“The ongoing retail sales downturn eased in October, with volumes falling at their slowest annual pace in over a year. Wholesalers and motor traders also saw some signs of activity steadying over the same period. That said, the outlook remains fragile as businesses face headwinds from cautious household spending and higher fuel costs.

“This week’s Autumn Budget must give firms in the distribution sector the breathing space required to support stronger trading conditions. Cutting employer National Insurance Contributions and delivering meaningful business rates reform would ease the cost burden on retailers, wholesales, and motor traders, helping them to invest, hire and grow.”

In addition, data from the survey showed:

• Retail stock volumes in relation to expected sales firmed in October to a position broadly in line with the long-run average (+19% from +10% in September; long-run average of +17%). Stock positions are set to soften next month (+8%).
• Wholesale sales volumes declined at a modest rate in the year to October (-4% from -24% in September). Sales are set to fall at a slightly quicker pace in November (-10%).
• Motor trade sales volumes were broadly flat in the year to October (-2% from -31% in September). Motor traders expect sales to decline at a moderate rate next month (-16%).