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Economic deep dive: Q2 2024

Your quarterly guide to the UK economy; making sense of the key trends and what's driving them.

10 Jul 2024, 1 min read

Quarterly highlights:

UK economy set to pick up steam

Our latest forecast projects that, following 0.1% growth in 2023, UK GDP will increase by 1.0% in 2024. Economic activity strengthens further in 2025, with growth anticipated to hit 1.9%.

Inflation falls to 2.0% in May

CPI inflation eased to 2.0% in May, reflecting lower food inflation. We project that inflation will pick up slightly in late 2024 due to base effects from price rises this time last year. Inflation is set to return to target more sustainably in 2025, reflecting a moderation in domestic price pressures.

Bank of England looks likely to cut rates in August

We expect the Bank of England to start cutting the Bank Rate (from its current level of 5.25%) in August 2024. Thereafter, we project that rates will be reduced gradually until they reach a terminal rate of 3.5% in Q2 2025.

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