Third time's a charm: Five takeaways on what the PM’s roadmap means for business

After weeks of speculation, rumour and briefing, this Monday (22 February) saw Boris Johnson unveil the government’s roadmap for lifting lockdown restrictions in England.

The big judgement call facing the PM was whether to go fast or slow in reopening the economy. Despite growing calls for a swifter ‘return to normal’ off the back of the continued success of the vaccine rollout and encouraging data on the vaccine reducing transmission, the Prime Minster opted to swap his trademark optimism for caution.  

Overall, as the CBI said in its immediate response the PM’s roadmap is a good starting point for business. The roadmap provides additional clarity on the government’s strategy for how and when restrictions will be eased.  

While many firms will be undoubtedly be pleased to have dates to factor into their business planning, for others the road ahead will be slow and there are plenty of hurdles still to be overcome. That’s why it’s vital for this roadmap to be turned into genuine economic momentum, starting at next week’s Budget. 

Here are five key takeaways on what the PM’s roadmap means for business: 

 1. Simplicity and uniformity – in England at least 

In a change of tack from last autumn where tiered restrictions were in place across England, in its roadmap, the government has adopted a uniformed, nationwide approach. This means that restrictions will be lifted at the same time, increasing simplicity for businesses operating across the whole of the country. 

This said, detailed within the fine print of the roadmap, the government has reserved the right to reimpose economic and social restrictions at a local or regional level if evidence suggests they are necessary to contain or suppress a variant which escapes the vaccine. And the potential for further complexity remains, with the devolved governments in Belfast, Cardiff and Edinburgh each finetuning their own reopening strategies.  

2. Data not dates 

Alongside the uniform approach, the PM’s roadmap also places a greater emphasis on data, with the sequencing for restrictions being eased being driven by four key tests. Given a four-week lag in the necessary data coming throw to illustrate the impact of easing restrictions, the roadmap commits to at least five-week gaps between each phase of easing restrictions, thereby giving firms additional time to adjust and prepare after the data has been assessed.  

And despite the dates attached in the roadmap to the four steps in the economic reopening, beyond the full reopening of schools on 8 March and modest changes to social interaction, all dates remain indicative at this stage. If the data doesn’t facilitate progression to the next phase, the reopening programme will be paused. 

3. Learning to live with the virus 

Throughout the roadmap, there has been a notable shift of tone, with government adopting a longer-term view on how to manage the risks presented by the virus.  

Driven by the PM’s instinctive fear of the potential political consequences of a fourth national lockdown, the roadmap handles the semi-permanent risk of living with the virus through commitments to reviews on: international travel, ‘Covid certificates’, social distancing and large events.  

The international travel review is due to report by 12 April, with all other reviews due to be concluded ahead of the final step in easing restrictions on 21 June. Details on how businesses can feed in are still to be determined, but the CBI is already engaging with key government departments to establish routes of communication.  

Alongside these reviews, the roadmap also detailed an important extension to government-backed workplace testing until the end of June, with eligible businesses required to register by 31 March.   

4. Filling in the detail  

Overall, the roadmap probably provided more detail than many were expecting in the run-up to its publication.  

But looking back at the six priorities the CBI outlined in its letter to the Business Secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, last month, it’s clear in some areas there was less detail than what firms were hoping for.  

In particular, there was less guidance than firms had hoped for on: 

• what the second phase of the vaccine deployment would look like 
• How the interplay between workplace testing, vaccines and Covid-secure workplaces will be managed going forward 
• What guidance will be issued to firms on how they should manage their approach to engaging with their workforce on what the vaccine rollout means for them 
• How the government’s approach to workplace-based working will evolve as restrictions are eased. 

5. All eyes on the Budget  

Alongside these key operational questions, the roadmap was light on detail on the scope of continued financial support, with key announcements deferred to the Budget on 3 March. The Chancellor’s statement must be the other side of the coin to the PM’s roadmap – extending business support in parallel to restrictions will give firms a bridge to the other side.   

Given the nine-day gap between these two announcements, struggling sectors which have to wait months to re-open, now have an unfortunate period of anxiety before the Budget. All eyes once again will be focused on what’s in the Chancellor’s red box.