CBI Principal Economist, Martin Sartorius, looks at the road ahead for the UK economy.
UK outlook: picking up steam
Our latest economic forecast expects that UK GDP growth will steadily pick over the year ahead and into 2025. Continued momentum is set to be driven by consumer spending, reflecting an improvement in household incomes amid lower inflation and elevated wage growth. Business investment is expected to be weak over 2024, but it should recover next year due to strengthening activity. We project that the Bank of England will begin to cut interest rates in late summer, with the Bank Rate then gradually falling to 3.5% towards the middle of 2025. Despite an improvement in the outlook for activity, productivity is expected to underperform its pre-COVID trend. This underlines the continued need to maintain a focus on boosting the UK’s longer-term growth prospects.
GDP
Growth to steadily accelerate over 2024 and 2025
The UK economy stagnated over 2023, with GDP
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