Future immigration system must address Scotland's demographic challenge, say CBI Director-General

Carolyn Fairbairn, CBI Director-General, will highlight the importance of building a post-Brexit immigration system that works for Scotland at the business organisation’s Annual Lunch in Edinburgh today (Friday).

Speaking before an audience of senior business leaders at The Principal Hotel in George Street, Carolyn will also address Brexit and how business and civil society can help people adapt to Scotland’s changing economy.

Carolyn will highlight the importance of business being heard “in a political landscape more fragmented than at any time in living memory”.

On the continuing Brexit talks between the UK Government and Her Majesty’s Opposition, Carolyn is expected to say:

“This is no time to be complacent or to slip into Brexit drift. Three years on, the landing zone for a workable deal still feels worrying small. And let me be crystal clear. Scottish firms, and firms across the UK, want a deal.

“But for all the hope and promise that politicians will stand firm against no deal, whether by accident or design, it could still happen.

“So we must continue to do everything possible to plan for it, but also everything possible to avoid it.

“Firms desperately need a timetable for these next few months. They need to have some idea of process, of timing, to enable them to plan, invest and prepare.

“What could this look like?

“Firstly, we urge the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition to put country before party, and compromise.

“The signs here remain mixed.

“If this part of the process fails, parliament must then find a way through. If not, public and business faith in its ability to resolve the gridlock will vanish.

“And if this also fails what then? Support for a general election or second referendum would inevitably grow.

“The only certainty at that point would be the ongoing neglect of domestic policy, with serious consequences for UK competitiveness.

“After three years firms still remain in the dark, taking decisions on investment, staff and pay while blindfolded by Brexit.

“It’s not good enough. We must move on.”

On the need for a post-Brexit immigration system that acknowledges Scotland’s demographic challenge, Carolyn is expected to say:

“In around 20 years’ time, just one third of the Scottish population will be of working age.

“This will have profound implications for Scotland, its tax base and public services.

“Three quarters of Scottish businesses expect to hire high-skilled workers in coming years. Yet nearly two thirds fear Scotland won’t have the people to fill them.

“From hospitals to housebuilders, R&D to renewables.

“And this is why the UK Government’s post-Brexit immigration proposals are troubling.

“The idea that skilled workers coming to Scotland may have to earn over £30,000.

“Well, the Scottish median salary is less than £24,000.

“Last year, I said that rather than debating the devolution of immigration our focus should be on a single system that receives a unanimous welcome from all parts of the UK.

“The bad news is there is a unanimous view, and it’s that the UK Government immigration proposals don’t work for any part of the UK.

“But that does not mean we should give up just yet.

“In fact, we’re working closely with the Home Office on exactly this.

“We’re saying: first, we need a lower salary threshold right across the UK.

“Second, we need a route for overseas workers which recognises the importance of all skills levels to our economy.

“The proposed 12-month temporary visa idea risks harming integration and productivity.

“Third, we need to make the immigration system affordable and accessible - particularly for our SMEs.

“Get this right, and we can build a system that works.

“But get it wrong and – let’s be frank –calls for Scottish flexibility on immigration will only increase.”

On CBI Scotland’s work with STUC to tackle automation and the future of work, Carolyn is expected to say:

“The rise of new technology will be felt by everyone. And what will define companies – as much as countries - is how they respond to and shape that change.

“Get it wrong, and automation could be a threat to employment. Get it right, and both the number and quality of jobs could rise.

“So together with the STUC we wrote to the Scottish Government making three proposals.

“First, that in the face of new technology, education matters.

“Not just in Scotland, but across the developed world.

“Long-gone are the days when we could expect teachers to give people all the skills they’ll need.

“The rate of change is too fast - we need people learning throughout their careers.

“We need colleges and universities able to welcome people back later in life – with the funding to pay for it.

“And – above all – businesses which invest not just in training, but in retraining– perhaps repeatedly throughout people’s careers.

“It’s great that many Scottish firms are already doing that.

“Second, we agreed with the STUC that we need to work together, as the scale of the change we’re facing is so rapid it demands unity across society.

“Third – here’s an idea about how we can first use that collaboration.

“A strategy for Scottish civil society for meeting the challenges of technology and turning them into opportunity.

“It means identifying the roles most likely to be affected and new roles that will be created – then building a bridge between the two.

“It can’t be done by government, business, or trade unions alone, but by each working together.

“And if we get this right, automation and digitisation can be as important an economic leap forward as the industrial revolution.

“We can build a society in Scotland that cherishes the fundamentally human skills, such as communication, empathy, innovation, and leadership.”